As tensions rise along Europe’s eastern borders, the European Union is racing to overhaul its defence and security posture, warning that the continent must be ready to deter Russia and other threats by 2030.
Yet behind the surge in spending and strategy papers lies a fundamental question: is Europe truly prepared, politically, militarily and socially, for war?
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shattered long-held assumptions about European security. Combined with growing pressure from the United States for Europe to shoulder more responsibility, Brussels now sees strengthening defence as unavoidable.
“The stakes are existential,” EU officials argue, pointing to the lack of any clear end to the war in Ukraine and repeated warnings from Moscow.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has framed new defence initiatives as essential to restoring deterrence. EU leaders have approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine, while defence budgets across the bloc exceeded €300 billion in 2024.
The proposed 2028–2034 EU budget would allocate an additional €131 billion to defence and aerospace, a fivefold increase on previous levels.
Central to these efforts is the EU’s “Readiness 2030” plan, endorsed by all 27 member states. The strategy aims to close capability gaps, streamline military mobility and allow troops and heavy equipment to cross borders within hours during emergencies.
Brussels is pushing for a so-called “Military Schengen”, reinforced transport corridors and upgrades to hundreds of bridges, tunnels and ports.
Yet public opinion tells a more cautious story. A recent Euronews poll found that 75% of respondents would not be willing to fight for the EU’s borders. Only 19% said they would take up arms, highlighting a stark gap between political urgency and societal readiness.
Concern is most acute in countries closest to Russia. The Baltic states, Poland and Finland have led efforts to prepare civilians through defence education, resilience drills and public information campaigns.
Lithuania and Latvia are restoring swamps and developing “drone walls”, while Finland, Estonia and Sweden have mailed households Cold War-style brochures explaining how to respond if war breaks out.
At the EU level, new financial tools such as ReArm Europe, the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and the €150 billion SAFE loan facility aim to boost joint procurement and reduce reliance on non-European suppliers.
Early demand is strong, with member states requesting tens of billions of euros for air defence, ammunition, drones and missiles.
Still, experts warn that money alone will not solve Europe’s problems. Fragmented defence industries, regulatory bottlenecks and decades of underinvestment continue to slow progress.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could target the alliance within five years, while Washington expects Europe to assume most conventional defence responsibilities by 2027.
As Europe re-arms against the clock, the challenge is no longer deciding whether to act, but whether it can overcome internal divisions and act fast enough to make its 2030 promises credible.