Russian military losses in the war against Ukraine have surged dramatically over the past 10 months, reaching their fastest growth rate since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, according to an extensive BBC analysis.
The rise comes despite intensified diplomatic efforts in 2025, led largely by pressure from US President Donald Trump’s administration to bring the conflict to an end.
BBC News Russian, working alongside independent outlet Mediazona and a network of volunteers, has confirmed the names of nearly 160,000 individuals killed while fighting on Russia’s side.
These figures are compiled from official announcements, obituaries, social media posts, and newly established graves and memorials. However, military experts consulted by the BBC believe this represents only 45–65% of the true toll, suggesting total Russian fatalities may range between 243,000 and 352,000.
A sharp increase in published obituaries offers insight into how the intensity of fighting has shifted. In 2025, Russian sources published 40% more obituaries than during the same period the previous year.
January began relatively quietly, but numbers rose in February, coinciding with the first direct talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Further peaks appeared in August, when the two leaders met in Alaska, and again in October and November after a second summit was cancelled and a 28-point US peace proposal emerged.
During that latter period, an average of 322 obituaries were published daily — double the 2024 average.
The Kremlin appears to view territorial advances as leverage in negotiations. Putin aide Yuri Ushakov recently emphasised that “recent successes” on the battlefield had strengthened Russia’s diplomatic position. But these gains have come at a heavy human cost.
One such casualty was Murat Mukashev, a Moscow-based activist who had long opposed both Putin’s rule and the invasion of Ukraine. Arrested in 2024 on serious drug charges he and his supporters described as coercive, Mukashev initially rejected an offer to join the military in exchange for leniency.
Later, encouraged by promises of a swift peace deal, he enlisted while in prison, hoping to secure his freedom. He was killed in June 2025 during an assault in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.
Cases like Mukashev’s illustrate a broader trend. BBC figures show that most Russians killed in 2025 were civilians at the start of the war. Volunteers — those who signed contracts after the invasion began — now account for roughly one-third of Russian military deaths, up from 15% a year earlier.
Generous pay offers, debt relief, and targeted recruitment campaigns have helped Moscow sustain manpower without resorting to mass mobilisation.
By October, officials claimed 336,000 people had enlisted in 2025 alone. Nato estimates suggest around 25,000 Russian soldiers are killed each month, meaning recruitment continues to outpace losses.
Still, the mounting casualties underscore a stark reality: even as peace talks gain momentum, the war’s human toll is escalating on both sides, with Ukrainian deaths also believed to be far higher than officially acknowledge.