The European Union is considering a sweeping new sanctions measure that could significantly tighten restrictions on Russia’s oil trade by banning all maritime services to vessels transporting Russian crude.
The proposal forms part of the European Commission’s 20th sanctions package against Moscow, as the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year.
If approved, the measure would effectively replace the current G7 price cap system, which has allowed Western companies to service Russian oil shipments provided the crude was sold below a fixed price threshold.
The cap, first introduced in December 2022, aimed to limit Moscow’s energy revenues while preventing global oil supply disruptions.
Under the proposed sanctions, European companies would be barred from providing insurance, banking, shipping, and technical services to any tanker carrying Russian crude, regardless of the price paid.
EU officials believe the move would close loopholes that have allowed Russia to continue exporting large volumes of oil despite Western restrictions.
Sweden and Finland have been leading advocates of the tougher approach, arguing that the price cap has become increasingly ineffective due to widespread circumvention.
Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Stenergard emphasised the need for stronger measures, stating that halting shipments, insurance, and repair services would raise operational costs for Russia’s energy sector.
The price cap initially represented a compromise between European efforts to weaken Russia’s war finances and US concerns about global market instability.
However, analysts say the policy has gradually lost impact as Moscow expanded its so-called “shadow fleet” of ageing tankers operating under unclear ownership structures to bypass Western oversight.
Since mid-2023, Russia has increasingly relied on these vessels to transport oil above the capped price. Meanwhile, fluctuations in global energy markets and rising Urals crude prices further undermined the cap’s effectiveness.
Recent developments have also shifted the political landscape. The United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, contributing to declining Russian energy revenues.
Official data indicates Russia’s oil and gas income dropped by 24% in 2025, reaching its lowest level since 2020.
Energy analysts suggest that current market conditions may allow for tougher sanctions without triggering severe supply shocks.
Ben McWilliams, an associate fellow at the Bruegel think tank, noted that global oil markets are more stable compared to 2022, reducing the risk of significant disruptions from stricter measures.
However, experts caution that enforcement will be crucial to the success of the proposed maritime ban.
Isaac Levi, a senior analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, argued that Russia’s shadow fleet now transports the majority of its crude exports, making monitoring and compliance essential.
The proposed sanctions also include restrictions on maintenance services for Russian icebreakers and liquefied natural gas tankers, signalling a broader effort to target Moscow’s energy infrastructure.
The final decision now rests with EU member states and G7 allies, whose approval is required for implementation. If adopted, the maritime services ban could mark one of the most significant escalations in Western economic pressure against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began.