Cuba is facing a new and potentially devastating phase of its long-running economic crisis following the dramatic removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a development that deprives Havana of its most important political ally and economic lifeline.
Over the weekend, Cuban authorities announced that 32 Cuban nationals were killed during a US raid on Caracas that resulted in Maduro’s capture. According to Havana, the victims were serving as bodyguards to the Venezuelan leader at a military compound.
The incident underscored the depth of Cuban involvement in Venezuela and highlighted just how much the island stands to lose from Maduro’s downfall.
For decades, Venezuela has been Cuba’s most reliable partner. The alliance dates back to the early 2000s, when Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro forged a close political bond that reshaped regional geopolitics.
That relationship survived Chávez’s death, with Maduro — educated in Cuba and closely aligned with Havana — continuing the partnership after coming to power.
At the heart of the alliance was oil. Venezuela supplied Cuba with heavily subsidised crude in exchange for medical services, intelligence cooperation and political support.
According to Bert Hoffmann, a political scientist at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Venezuelan oil still accounted for about 70% of Cuba’s total imports in recent months, with the remainder coming mainly from Mexico and Russia.
Maduro’s removal raises fears in Havana that this flow could soon be cut off entirely, particularly if Washington enforces an oil embargo using naval forces in the Caribbean. The Trump administration has signalled that Cuba, alongside other perceived adversaries, could be next in line for increased pressure.
Cuba’s economy is already under severe strain. It has contracted by roughly 4% over recent years, including a 1.5% decline in 2025 alone. Inflation exceeds 20%, while shortages of food, medicine and fuel have become part of daily life.
Heavy reliance on tourism — an industry highly sensitive to political instability — has further weakened the country’s economic resilience.
Despite these hardships, experts say a popular uprising remains unlikely. Hoffmann argues that fear of what could follow a regime collapse helps maintain elite unity and discourages ordinary citizens from taking to the streets.
“Mobilising collective action requires not just shared discontent, but also the belief that protest can bring change,” he said. “Right now, that belief is largely absent.”
US officials have suggested that Cuba’s leadership should be worried, but uncertainty over Washington’s next steps may actually demobilise the population rather than inspire rebellion.
As Cuba braces for possible isolation and deeper shortages, the immediate outlook appears grim — yet stability, rather than revolt, may still define the island’s near future.