Chocolate lovers across Europe are feeling the bite of soaring prices as the global cocoa market experiences its sharpest crisis in decades. Driven largely by poor harvests in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire — the world’s top cocoa producers — the shortage has sent prices of the sweet treat skyrocketing across the European Union.
According to Eurostat data, Poland has recorded the steepest increase in chocolate prices, with consumers facing a staggering 39.1% rise in May compared to the previous year. The surge placed Poland at the top of the EU inflation chart for chocolate products, outpacing its neighbors and highlighting the uneven impact of the crisis across the continent.
Estonia (+37.9%), Lithuania (+36.5%), and Latvia (+33.2%) followed closely, with the Baltic region experiencing some of the highest spikes in Europe. Nordic nations, including Sweden (+28.0%) and Finland (+26.0%), have also seen significant hikes, further squeezing household budgets already under pressure from broader inflationary trends.
On average, chocolate prices across the EU rose 21.1% in May compared to the year before. Some countries, however, have been shielded from the worst effects. Luxembourg (+5.2%), Cyprus (+9.0%), Italy (+12.0%), Malta (+12.2%), and Austria (+13.4%) reported more modest increases, suggesting variations in supply chains, market structures, and consumer demand have softened the blow in certain regions.
Behind the price surge lies an unprecedented crisis in cocoa production. The International Cocoa Organisation estimates that global production during the 2023/2024 season fell by about 10% compared to the previous season.
The resulting supply deficit — the gap between consumer demand and what the market can provide — has ballooned to 478,000 metric tonnes, the largest in six decades.
Cocoa prices, which historically hovered between €2,000 and €3,000 per tonne, skyrocketed to as much as €13,000 earlier this year, before easing slightly. Analysts expect prices to settle at around €9,000 by the year’s end, still far above historical averages.
Experts attribute the crisis to multiple factors, primarily climate change and crop diseases. West Africa’s cocoa belt has endured unusual weather patterns, with heavy rainfall followed by prolonged dry spells undermining crop yields. At the same time, fungal and viral diseases have further reduced productivity.
The result has been a tightening of supplies just as global demand for chocolate continues to grow.
For European chocolate makers, the consequences are severe. Rising raw material costs have squeezed profit margins, forcing companies to either absorb losses or pass costs onto consumers. Many have opted for the latter, contributing to the sharp inflation now felt by households across the bloc.
With cocoa prices unlikely to return to historic norms anytime soon, both producers and consumers face an uncertain future. For now, the sweet indulgence of chocolate is becoming a far more expensive treat — particularly for those in Poland and across northern and eastern Europe, where price hikes have been most severe.