On New Year’s Day, a significant shift in energy politics took place when Ukraine halted the return flow of Russian gas, a move Kyiv is calling “historic” in its refusal to extend a transit agreement with Gazprom.
The decision has not only disrupted Ukraine’s energy relations with Russia but has also sent shockwaves across neighboring Moldova, particularly its breakaway region of Transnistria.
Transnistria, a Russian-backed separatist enclave in eastern Moldova, has relied heavily on Russian gas to sustain its economy and infrastructure. But with the gas supply cut, residents are now facing severe energy shortages.
Dmitry, a local resident in Transnistria, told the BBC, “The hot water was on until about 2 am. Now it’s off, and the radiators are barely warm. We still have gas, but the pressure is very low.”
He described the situation as dire, with authorities only providing heat to hospitals and critical infrastructure, leaving residents without heating in their homes.
Historically, Transnistria has been financially supported by Russia, paying nothing for the gas it consumes, with authorities in Tiraspol maintaining a file to track the growing debt without the expectation of repayment.
But with the gas flow from Ukraine suddenly halted, the region faces unprecedented hardship. Local authorities are scrambling to set up “heating points” and providing hotlines for firewood.
Families are advised to huddle together for warmth and seal cracks in their windows to conserve heat as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing.
Transnistria’s situation also poses a significant threat to Moldova’s already strained energy sector. The region’s main power plant, located in Kurchugan, is currently operating on coal instead of Russian gas, but authorities warn that there is only enough coal to fuel the plant for the next 50 days.
This is problematic for Moldova, which relies on Kurchugan for 80% of its electricity. The Moldovan government has assured citizens that it has enough gas to heat the country until spring, but it is preparing for a massive hike in electricity costs as it seeks to purchase energy from Europe.
A state of emergency has already been declared, with businesses and citizens urged to reduce consumption in anticipation of power cuts.
The energy crisis has put additional pressure on Moldova, which has been struggling with economic instability. Moldova, the poorest country in Europe, faces a fragile political situation, and the disruption in energy supplies could have far-reaching consequences.
The Moldovan government has accused Russia of using the energy crisis as a tool to destabilize the country both economically and socially, especially ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections in 2025.
Olga Rosca, a foreign policy adviser to Moldova’s president, called the situation a “security crisis” and suggested that Russia’s actions are designed to create a pretext for pro-Russian forces to regain power.
She pointed to Moscow’s continued efforts to undermine the country’s pro-European stance, including disinformation campaigns and false accusations aimed at Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu.
As the situation in Transnistria worsens, pressure on Moldova to resolve the crisis will mount. But Tiraspol has refused aid, including offers of generators, further complicating the humanitarian situation.
Meanwhile, the Moldovan government faces growing dissatisfaction among the population, as soaring energy prices could turn the electorate against pro-EU parties.
The Russian move to cut gas supplies could, in the long term, play into Moscow’s hands, as Moldova’s citizens may turn to pro-Russian alternatives in a bid to stabilize their economic situation.
As one analyst put it, “Russia can wait for the elections, and when people can’t afford their bills, they’ll vote for parties who aren’t pro-EU.” The outcome of this geopolitical energy game could reshape Moldova’s future in ways that benefit Moscow.