SINGAPORE – Germany’s top military officer has issued a stark warning that NATO must prepare for the possibility of a Russian attack on its eastern flank within the next four years.
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, General Carsten Breuer, Chief of Defence of the German Armed Forces, said NATO must be ready for potential aggression by 2029—or even sooner—as Russia significantly ramps up its military production.
“There’s an intent and there’s a build-up of the stocks,” Gen Breuer said, referencing Russian production of 1,500 battle tanks annually and over four million rounds of 152mm artillery shells in 2024 alone. “This is what the analysts are assessing—in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029… [but] is this a guarantee it’s not earlier? No. We must be able to fight tonight.”
His remarks come amid mounting concern in Western capitals about Russia’s long-term intentions following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gen Breuer said not all Russian military production is being used in Ukraine, with significant stockpiling aimed at future strategic positioning—particularly against NATO’s vulnerable Baltic members.
He singled out the Suwalki Gap, a narrow land corridor connecting Poland and Lithuania between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, as a critical flashpoint. “The Baltic States are really exposed to the Russians,” Gen Breuer noted. “They feel the heat, see the flames and smell the smoke,” while countries like Germany still feel removed from the immediate threat.
Despite growing anxieties, Gen Breuer stressed that NATO remains unified in its commitment to collective defence, even as Hungary and Slovakia adopt more conciliatory stances toward Moscow. “I’ve never seen such unity like it is now,” he said, referencing the alliance’s expansion with Finland and Sweden joining after the start of the Ukraine war.
Breuer’s comments underscore a broader strategic shift within Germany, which has traditionally taken a more cautious approach to defence spending. Recent political consensus, including support from the Green Party, has begun to reverse years of military underinvestment.
However, questions remain over whether NATO nations, particularly in Europe, can realistically match Russia’s pace of military buildup. Analysts warn that rebuilding Europe’s defence industrial base will take years. Meanwhile, the United States—NATO’s largest military contributor—has increasingly shifted focus toward the Indo-Pacific.
Gen Breuer highlighted recent Russian cyber and hybrid operations as signs of Moscow testing NATO’s defences. These include attacks on undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, cyber disruptions of public transport, and drone sightings near critical infrastructure in Germany.
Calling for urgent action, he concluded: “What we have to do now is really to lean in and to tell everybody, hey, ramp up… get more into it because we need it. We need it to be able to defend ourselves and therefore also to build up deterrence.”
The remarks set the stage for the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague, where defence budgets and preparedness are expected to dominate the agenda.